What Are The Odds DDH DIPA by @magicrockbrewing
What are the odds that the first time I try any Magic Rock beer, that it’s a collab between them and one of my favourites, Verdant? Well, there’s a lot of things at play here. First of all, both businesses had to be going long enough to produce a beer that made it in to the market. A bit more than 50% of businesses fail in the first four years, and both have beaten that. So let’s say the odds of them both surviving are 1/4. (1/2 divided by 2). Next, one of the brilliant beer shops near me needs to be able to sell it, so that’s another 50%. We’re down to 1/8. Now this beer is probably a once in 5 years collaboration? (Total guess). So that’s 1/40 that I get the right year. It was only around for about a month, so that’s 1/480 that I get the right month, and I probably went 3 times during the month so we’re down to 1/4800 that I’m there on the right day. I actually managed to get this 4 (!) times, but each from different places, which brings us to 1/19,200. It had to be a year at which I was above legal drinking age, so now we’re at 1/192,000, and before that I had to have been born - odds being roughly one in a trillion so we’re talking odds of 1 in 192,000 trillion.
Odds of it being absolutely brilliant though? With these guys? We’re back to 1/1.
But also I wouldn’t know that so we’ll go with 1/192,000,000,000,000,000,000.
I like those odds.